The NAEPs of Wrath

Today, it’s Nat Malkus from the American Enterprise Institute and his report “Testing Theories of Why: Four Keys to Interpreting US Student Achievement Trends.”

A more clever version of myself would say, “I’ve read it, so you don’t have to,” but you should, too. I’m smart enough to say I know it’s smart, but humble enough to say I’ll need another reading round to fully get it.

What comes next is what I take away from it so far.

First, for you microwave readers who need the skinny fast, here are the four main headlines in the report:

• Achievement Has Been Declining Since 2013—Well Before the Pandemic

• Declines Are Driven by the Bottom Half of Students

• The U.S. Is Leading the World in Achievement Gap Growth

• It’s Not Just Students—Adults Are Falling Behind Too

As someone who doomscrolls education content, too often looking for confirmation that education needs massive overhauling, I’m a good patsy for headlines screaming about pandemic learning loss and politicians waging ideological battles over classroom content.

But a deeper, more troubling narrative about American education reveals a story that goes beyond test scores—it's about systematically undermining educational opportunity, particularly for our most vulnerable students.

Since 2013, well before anyone had heard of COVID-19, American students have fallen behind. The decline wasn’t universal. The students at the top—those blessed with resources, support, and systemic advantages—have maintained their ground.

However, the bottom half of our student population is bearing the weight of this educational regression, widening an already unconscionable achievement gap into a chasm.

While other developed nations grapple with similar challenges—technological disruption, social media's influence, and economic pressures—none have seen their achievement gaps expand with the stark velocity of the United States. This isn't a coincidence; it's the predictable outcome of a system that has consistently failed to center the needs of its most marginalized learners.

The pattern becomes even more disturbing when we look beyond our schools.

Adult literacy and numeracy scores have declined since 2017, suggesting a multigenerational educational crisis and a broader intellectual regression. This decline coincides ominously with the dismantling of No Child Left Behind's accountability measures and the rise of educational policies that, while well-intentioned, inadvertently reduced focus on struggling learners.

Think about the timing: 2012 marked the explosion of smartphones and algorithm-driven content in our daily lives. As screens began dominating our attention spans, something fundamental shifted in how we engage with learning. Students who could afford enrichment activities and had strong educational support at home weathered this technological storm, while those without such privileges began to drift.

But technology alone doesn't tell the whole story. We've witnessed a steady decline in advanced coursework participation, particularly in crucial subjects like Algebra and pre-algebra during middle school. This trend disproportionately affects students from under-resourced communities, creating a mathematical glass ceiling that limits their future academic trajectory.

The Great Recession cast a long shadow over this educational landscape, its effects rippling through families and communities long after the economic indicators recovered. Then came the pandemic, delivering its heaviest blows to the same communities struggling to keep their heads above water. These weren't just economic setbacks but educational body blows that knocked many students off their academic path.

This crisis is particularly insidious because it is not a problem we can solve with quick fixes or pandemic recovery funds alone. The roots run deeper, intertwining with systemic inequities that have persisted for generations. When we see high-performing students maintaining their achievement levels while their struggling peers fall further behind, we're witnessing the perpetuation of educational apartheid in real time.

The path forward demands more than incremental change. We need a fundamental reimagining of how we support struggling learners. This means moving beyond the false comfort of solutions lacking evidence of their worth and embracing targeted interventions that meet students where they are. It means examining why our achievement gaps are growing faster than other nations and having the courage to learn from educational systems that are getting it right.

Schools alone cannot solve this crisis. There is common ground between AEI and progressives on that point. Allow me to pee in both their punch bowls: schools are the biggest investment we make into teaching, learning, and outcomes. I reject any language that minimizes expectations of their potential for producing learned citizens from whatever background.

Yet, when adult literacy and numeracy decline alongside student achievement, I concede we face a cultural shift that requires a comprehensive response and broader participation from all corners. Engaging families, communities, and society in educational restoration is a worthy project, but we must realize it is an indirect remedy. Getting the nation’s students to master calculus, literary criticism, the scientific method, and world history won’t come from mid-week chicken dinners with families or home visits by weary teachers.

Malkus is clear that the data tell us we are witnessing not just an educational decline but a sorting of America's children into educational haves and have-nots. The question isn't whether we can reverse these trends—we know we can.

But do we have a sense of urgency proportionate to the problem? Do we demand the political will and moral courage from our leaders, journalists, and the public to confront the uncomfortable truths about who our educational system serves and who it leaves behind?

We’re at a crossroads. One direction points towards a slow-motion brain rot capable of ending the empire.

The other direction is toward a course correction that will bring the bottom half of learners into the American franchise and give them what they need to live proper lives.

Ok. That’s dramatic. Yet, how else do I get all of us to care about the completely solvable problem that causes so much division and needless suffering of people I care deeply about?

Will we continue to chase quick fixes and politically expedient solutions?

Or will we finally commit to the deeper work of building an educational system that truly serves all of our children?

The answer to that question will determine not just the future of our schools but the very fabric of our democracy.